Monday vs. Thursday: SHARP Action Report

Zuffa, LLC. (2026). "UFC Vegas 117." UFC.com.

Thursday (Day 4)

Public betting remains heavily skewed toward favorites, with increased concentration by Day 4. Significant line movements have occurred, generally in the direction of public money (favorites shortening). Volume has increased across the card. Books appear to be actively courting public (“square”) money on heavy favorites while positioning for potential variance or sharp money on the other side. This is a classic sports betting structure designed to maximize long-term house edge.

Key Themes:

• Public steam on multiple heavy favorites.

• Notable line reversals/steam moves (especially Modestas Bukauskas and Tommy Gantt).

• Divergence between Handle % (dollars) and Bets % (parlays) reveals sharp vs public activity.

• Several low-action underdogs create high-upside spots for the house if they win.

Major Line & Split Changes

Fighter (Favorite)	Day 1 Odds / Handle	Day 4 Odds / Handle	Change Summary
Nicoll Caliari	-245 / 79%	-258 / 81%	Slight steam “smart money” on favorite
Alice Ardelean	-198 / 87%	-205 / 80%	Heavy public remains
Tommy Gantt	-238 / 64%	-175 to -198 / 80-84%	Major public steam “smart money”, line shortened dramatically
Benardo Sopaj	-175 / 91%	-155 / 81%	Still very heavy public
Malcolm Wellmaker	-250 / 97%	-278 / 86%	Extreme public favorite, line moved in
Modestas Bukauskas	-112 / 38%	-340 / 91%	Huge line reversal & steam – one of the clearest moves
Jacqueline Cavalcanti	-175 / 69%	-162 / 72%	Public dominant
Andre Petroski	-218 / 69%	-218 / 70%	Stable heavy public money

Notable Dogs / Low Action:

• Shauna Bannon (+200 → +210): Action faded slightly.

• Christian Edwards (+270): Very low handle (9-10%).

• Juan Diaz (+205 → +225): Public money continued to fade (down to 14%).

Tuco Tokkos stands out with consistent 74% handle on the favorite side despite positive odds — possible mix of public + sharp money.

Sharp vs Public Indicators

• Public Money (high bet % (parlays) relative to handle): Visible on Wellmaker, Gantt, Cavalcanti, Bukauskas — many small bets flooding in.

• Sharp Money Signals (strong handle with relatively fewer bets): Seen in spots like Tuco Tokkos and some mid-card favorites where dollar volume outpaces ticket count.

• Handle % exceeding Bet % often points to larger, more sophisticated bettors.

House / Casino Intent & Design

The oddsmakers and sports book’s appear to have structured this card to:

1. Attract massive public liability on short-priced favorites (Wellmaker, Bukauskas, Gantt, Caliari, Sopaj, Ardelean).

2. Use line movement to keep public money flowing in the direction they anticipate (or want to balance).

3. Create “trap” lines where public over-bets favorites at low prices. Books win big on variance (underdog wins) or when sharp money balances the other side.

4. Limit exposure on certain dogs by allowing their lines to drift (Bannon, Edwards, Diaz).

This is standard “square vs sharp” (casual vs PRO) bookmaking. The house knows the public loses long-term on heavy favorites, especially in MMA where variance is high. By Day 4, they’ve successfully drawn even more money onto several key favorites.

Highest House-Edge / Public Trap Candidates (Day 4):

• Malcolm Wellmaker (-278, 86-88% action)

• Modestas Bukauskas (-340, 91% action)

• Tommy Gantt (80-84% action)

• Nicoll Caliari & Benardo Sopaj

Contrarian / Potential Sharp Angles:

• Low-action underdogs (Edwards, Diaz, Bannon)

• Fights with balanced or diverging splits (Tuco Tokkos)

Volume & Market Maturity

• Increased volume overall from Day 1 to Day 4.

• More fighters showing meaningful action.

• Lines have stabilized around heavy public bias in most cases.

Final Takeaway:

The market is behaving typically for a UFC card — public chasing favorites, books 

Zuffa, LLC. (2026). "UFC Vegas 117." UFC.com.

Monday (Day 1):

Early betting action on this UFC Fight Night card (Saturday, May 16) shows very limited volume overall on spreads and totals (mostly zero percent), with moneyline action dominating. This is typical early in the week for prelim-heavy cards—sharps often wait for more information, while public money trickles in on big favorites.

FYI: Handle percent (%) reflects dollars wagered (sharper money, as bigger bets move it more). Bets % reflects parlays (usually public or typical casual action).

Standout sharp-heavy or notable plays (where handle percent significantly differs from bets percent or is heavily one-sided, often with high numbers):

• Nicolle Caliari (-245): approximately 79% handle, 67% parlays. Solid favorite with decent money behind her versus Shauna Bannon (+200, 21% handle and 33% parlays). Public and sharps are aligned on Caliari.

• Alice Ardelean (-198): 87% handle and 77% parlays. Very heavy action. Public and money are pounding the favorite versus Polyana Viana (+164, low %). This looks like one of the strongest early leans.

• Benardo Sopaj (-175): 91% percent handle and 68% parlays. Classic sharp/public split favoring the favorite versus Timmy Cuamba (+145, low handle). Money is disproportionately on Sopaj.

• Malcolm Wellmaker (-250): 97% percent handle and 87% parlays. Extreme one-sided action. Massive sharp and public money on him versus Juan Diaz (+205, tiny 3% handle and 13% bets). This screams “hammer the favorite” early.

Other notes:

• Favorites are getting the bulk of the action across the board (for example, Andre Petroski -218 at 69% handle, Tommy Gantt -238 at 64% handle, etc.). Underdogs like Cody Brundage (+180, 31%), Ketlen Vieira (+145, 31%), etc., are seeing lighter play.

• Some closer fights (for example, Luis Gurule versus Daniel Barez around -110 to -112) show more balanced action (roughly 50/50).

• No major reverse line movement indicators yet since it is early (day 1 of 6).

What Are the Sharps Doing?

Sharps (larger bets driving handle percent) appear to be primarily on the heavy favorites early, especially the highlighted ones: Caliari, Ardelean, Sopaj, and especially Wellmaker. These show handle percent much greater than parlay percent or extremely high overall percent, suggesting confident money coming in on perceived edges or “safe” sides where the line might be soft.

No obvious big contrarian sharp money on dogs yet — volume is too low and skewed to favorites. Sharps are selective, waiting for value, but piling onto a few mismatches.

What Is the Public On?

The public (parlays) are also heavily on favorites, aligning with sharps on the big ones (Ardelean, Wellmaker, etc.). This is common early — casual bettors love favorites and names they recognize. Low overall volume means the public has not fully squared up yet.

House Perspective / Line Design

The house (sportsbooks) designs lines to balance action and limit liability, not necessarily to trap one side perfectly. Here:

• Lines seem set to attract public money on favorites (standard), with some potential value for sharps on those same sides early (before lines steam more).

• No obvious massive trap is visible — it is more business as usual with one-sided money on chalk. The house wins via vig (approximately -110 pricing) if results are roughly 50/50, but heavy favorite action means they could be exposed if a few dogs hit. They may shade lines or adjust as more money comes in closer to fight day.

• “Giving bones”? Possibly on the highlighted favorites if books view them as strong but want to balance with underdog money later. Or they see these as the correct side and are happy to take the other side of public or early sharp money.

Bottom line (early read)

Sharps and public are both loading favorites, with strongest early conviction on Ardelean, Sopaj, Wellmaker, and Caliari. Monitor for line movement as volume increases toward Saturday — watch if any dogs get steamed by late sharp money. Always bet responsibly; early splits can shift dramatically. This card looks chalk-friendly so far, but MMA is chaotic.

Zuffa, LLC. (2026). "UFC 328." UFC.com.

Thursday (Day 4):

The shift between Day 1 (Monday) and Day 4 (Thursday) for UFC 328 reveals a massive tug-of-war. The house has adjusted several lines significantly to protect themselves from "sharp" exposure, while the "public" is now heavily parlaying the big favorites as the weekend approaches.

1. The "Big Move" Heat Map: Day 1 vs. Day 4

• Jeremy Stephens (+270 → +295): House baiting. Even with 56% of the money, the house increased the payout. It appears they are begging for more public money on King Green.

• Pat Sabatini (-185 → -205): True Sharp Action. Despite the handle percentage dropping slightly (86% to 78%), the house moved the line 20 cents. This means the money that did come in was from "max-limit" bettors the book respects.

• Baisangur Susurkaev (-625 → -675): Public Steam. This is now a "blind" parlay piece. The house is making it mathematically unplayable as a straight bet.

• Khamzat Chimaev (-575 → -575): The Big Balancing Act. On Day 1, Chimaev had 68% of the handle. It’s now split 50/50. The house successfully lured Strickland money to balance the books.

  
  

2. Sharp vs. Public Archetypes

The "House Side": Sean Strickland (+425)

Chimaev's money handle dropped from 68% to 50%, yet his odds didn't move. Usually, if money drops that much, the line would "soften" (e.g., go from -575 to -500). The fact it stayed at -575 suggests the house is very comfortable being "exposed" on Chimaev. Perhaps they likely believe Strickland’s cardio and defensive boxing are a nightmare for Khamzat’s gas tank. The house is effectively "rooting" for Strickland.

The "Sharp Lean": Jeremy Stephens (+295)

This is the definition of "Sharp" activity. Stephens has 56% of the money but only 20% of the bets. Professional bettors are putting large sums on Stephens, while the "Joe Public" (80% of tickets) is taking King Green. The house is defying the sharps here—by widening the line to +295, they are essentially saying, "We disagree with the pros; give us more Stephens money."

The "Public Darling": King Green (-375)

80% of all tickets are on Green. This is "recreational" volume. The house has moved the line from -340 to -375 not because of the amount of money, but because of the sheer number of people they need to discourage from betting him.

3. Line Reversals & Stagnation

• Reverse Line Movement (RLM): Roman Kopylov (+154). On Day 1, he had 73% of the money. Now he has 76% of the money and his bet count increased. Despite this massive support, his line hasn't budged much. This may indicate the house has a "ceiling" on his value and is happy to take every dollar of Kopylov money coming in.

  
  

4. The "Casino's Design"

It's clear the house built this card with "Anchor Favorites" like Chimaev, Susurkaev, and Gautier. By pricing them at -575, -675, and -1,100, they force the public to create "Lottery Parlays."

The Strategy: It appears the house knows that while these favorites might win, adding them all together increases the mathematical "hold" (profit margin) for the casino. They are likely looking for one of these heavy favorites to have a "bad night"—likely Chimaev or Susurkaev based on the handle shifts—to wipe out 90% of the public's parlay tickets in one go.

Note: Watch the Jeremy Stephens line until Saturday. If it keeps climbing toward +310 despite the money staying at 50%+, the house is "stepping out" and taking a massive position against the sharps. Zuffa, LLC. (2026). "UFC 328." UFC.com.

Monday (Day 1):

Public is heavily on chalk (favorites), as expected this far out, with low overall volume. Sharps appear selective or waiting…with some hidden value on fading the public where handle (cash) % lags bets (parlays) % or lines hold/move against the public's momentum (steam).

Public Behavior (Clear from the Splits)—Heavy public leaning on heavy favorites:

• Baysangur Susurkaev (~78% handle / 94% bets)

• Pat Sabatini (~86% handle / 78% bets)

• Ateba Gautier (73%/93%)

• Khamzat Chimaev (main event, ~68% handle / 82% bets at -575 or so)

• Jared Gordon (65%/83%), King Green (high bets % on favorite), etc.

• This is classic recreational/public MMA betting: hammer big favorites early, especially names they know (Chimaev hype, veterans, etc.). Many small tickets (parlays) on the chalk.

Where Sharps Might Be Playing Early (or Watching)

Sharps (higher handle, often bigger bets) look for edges where public % is extreme but lines aren’t moving as expected, or inconsistencies in handle vs. bets:

• Roman Kopylov (+164): 73% handle but only ~50% bets. This screams bigger money (sharps) on the dog early. Public split more even on tickets, but money coming in on Kopylov.

• Jose Ochoa (+150 Clayton Carpenter) and a few others where handle leans one way vs. ticket count.

• Main Event nuance: Chimaev is a massive public favorite (-440 to -590 range across books), but some reports note early Strickland money at plus prices, with the dog ticking up slightly in places. Not massive sharp steam yet, but value hunters fading the public overload on Khamzat.29

• Low volume overall means sharps are likely selective/probing rather than pounding. They’re waiting for more info (weigh-ins, training footage, injuries) closer to fight week when limits open up.

Fights where the public is split 50/50 are exactly what the pros look for. They search for 'hidden' leads that the average person misses, such as a major difference in grappling skills or a significant age gap between the fighters.

House/Bookmaker Perspective (“They Always Win”)

• Fight Card design & lines: Books set these with expected public bias in mind. Heavy favorites like Susurkaev, Sabatini, Gautier, and Chimaev are potential “traps” — public will pile on, and if any upset hits (common in MMA), books win big on the chalk side. The house builds in margin (vig) and balances action.

• Early low volume = low risk for books: They’re comfortable letting public money dictate early movement. If sharps come in heavy on dogs later, books can adjust limits or use correlated action.

• Not necessarily “trapping sharps” this early — more standard chalk bias exploitation. MMA books love events where public hammers big favorites; they win long-term when variance hits (underdogs cover 45-50% but pay bigger). A few “bones” (sharper lines on dogs like Kopylov) keep pros engaged without killing the book.

• By fight day (Saturday), expect higher volume, possible reverse line movement (line moves against public % = sharp money), and more props/method betting for edge.

  
  

Bottom line on Day 1

• Public: Crushing obvious favorites (Chimaev, Sabatini, Susurkaev, etc.). Typical retail behavior.

• Sharps: Selective early — leaning dogs in spots like Kopylov where bigger money shows in handle. Mostly waiting/observing. Some early Strickland + money noted in market reports.

• House is positioned well: Public money on chalk provides a buffer. Watch for line movement mid-week as volume ramps — that’s when sharp action reveals itself clearest.

  
  

This all appears to be a classic setup. Fade extreme public % when you have a strong reason (or shop best prices). Props, live betting, and underdogs often provide the real edge in these spots.